Recent Rainfall Has Lessened Wildfire Risk

Three months of above-normal rainfall have not been enough to replenish lake levels, but the Floridan Aquifer is in the normal range and the fire danger has eased, at least temporarily.

April, which is normally a dry month with average rainfall of 2.04 inches, could start off wetter than usual, according to Bay News 9 meteorologist Brian McClure.

An easterly airflow is resulting in a summerlike pattern that could generate afternoon and early evening showers, McClure said.

That pattern is expected to end Saturday as a cold front pushes into Florida, bringing with it a 40 percent chance of rain.

"There will not be much temperature change," he said. Highs will be 80 to 82, rather than the mid-80s, but humidity will drop.

Any rain is welcomed as Central Florida awaits the return of the rainy season, which normally begins in June.

"We've been dodging the bullet," said Chris Kintner, a spokeswoman for the Florida Division of Forestry.

In December, the drought index neared the 600 mark, causing Forestry officials to issue warnings of a severe fire season.

That hasn't happened yet, but Kintner said things could change rapidly.

It has been the timing of the rains that has kept vegetation just wet enough to ease the problem.

Tuesday, the drought index stood at an average of 375 in Polk County. However, Kintner noted that it is as high as 616 in parts of Southeast Polk, which has received less rainfall.

The drought index ranges from a soggy zero to a bone-dry 800, with firefighters expecting problems any time the reading is above 400.

Only 10 of Florida's 67 counties are now above the 400 mark, with Hardee County having the highest reading at 508.

While Central Florida has received above-average rainfall since Jan. 1, that is normally a dry period.

Lakeland Linder Regional Airport has recorded 10.6 inches this year, compared to an average of 8.56 for the period.

The difference of a little over two inches is not enough to overcome months of drought.

According to figures from the Southwest Florida Water Management District, Central Florida received an average of 41.44 inches in 2007, which is more than a foot below normal.

Levels in the aquifer - the main source of drinking water for most of the state - are in the normal range, according to the Water District. Lakes, however, remain a foot or two below normal for this time of year.

The Winter Haven Chain of Lakes now stands at 128.84 feet above sea level, which is about three inches higher than it was at the start of February.

"It's been up and down," said Roger Griffiths, executive director of the Lake Region Lakes Management District. "It's slowly going down again."

Because of the low water levels, Griffiths said he still does not consider the canals connecting lakes in the chain to be navigable, although knowledgeable boaters can get through in smaller

boats.

Griffiths said he expects the Chain to drop lower before summer, but does not expect to reach the record low of 127.5 feet above sea level that was set in June 2001.

How wet or dry the remainder of the dry season will be is anybody's guess.

The three-month outlook issued by the national Climate Prediction Center says there is an "equal chance" that of above-average or below-average rainfall for April, May and June. It said temperatures are expected to be above average.

While March may have been slightly above-average on rainfall, it came no place close to setting the record for the month, which as 12.94 inches in 1980. The driest March ever recorded was 0.22 inches in 2006.

Last month's temperatures ranged from 41 on March 9 and 25 to 87 on March

16.

That compares to a record low of 25, recorded on March 3, 1918, to a high of 92 on March 27, 1994. No records were set for any individual day of the month, a review of weather data shows.