Drought Index Climbs, Raising Wildfire Worries

The early end to the rainy season has left officials with the Florida Division of Forestry fearful of a long wildfire season in Central Florida.

"I'm real concerned about the next month of two," said Gary Zipprer, who heads the Lakeland-based district of the Division of Forestry. "It's scary going into the dry season."

The drought index, used by forestry officials to gauge the wildfire danger, stood below 100 for most of the summer and was at 56 at the end of August. By Thursday, the index had climbed to 416.

The index ranges from a soggy zero to a bone-dry 800, with officials expecting problems any time the reading is above 400.

The passage of Tropical Storm Fay in August soaked Polk County, but there has been little rain since. Scattered rain throughout the county Wednesday will help for a few days, but Zipprer said swamps are already drying up.

While some areas of Polk got no rain Thursday, volunteers for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network recorded 1.3 inches in Polk City, 1.35 inches southwest of Lakeland and 1.02 inches east of Frostproof. Totals in other areas were less than an inch.

September rains were about one-third of normal, with 1.45 inches recorded at Lakeland Linder Airport, where the average for the month is 6.33 inches. October typically marks the start of the dry season, with a rainfall average of just 2.29 inches.

Deborah Hanley, state meteorologist for the Division of Forestry, said it is likely that the next few months will be drier than normal. Hanley said this year there is no El Nino - the warm pool of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that typically results in wet conditions in the Southeastern U.S.

"This could be another fire season with increased activity," she said.

Zipprer said his agency is already starting to get a few calls, but there have been no major fires yet. He said the danger will increase after the first frost kills and dries vegetation.

In the meantime, "I sure wouldn't mind having another storm come close by and drop four or five inches of rain," he said.

[ Bill Bair can be reached at bill.bair@theledger.com or 863-676-7118. ]